Which Stats are Most Important? (Analysis From my Rounds)

General Discussion
#1

With the season winding down (at least for me) I decided to take a deep dive into my stats for the year. I looked at which stats were most correlated with score. Here are the results (all correlations are in the direction you would think, average score = 85.6, 36 rounds so kind of small sample size):

R^2 Correlation to Score (Close to 0 = not very correlated, Close to 1 = very correlated)

GIR 0.5991
FIR 0.0245
Putts 0.0654
GIR+1 0.6147
Birdies 0.2466
Pars 0.5318
Bogeys 0.1745 (Positively correlated, ie more bogeys = higher score)
Doubles 0.4254
Others 0.4494
Pars + 0.7478
Doubles - 0.8063
Penalties 0.5460
SG: Driving 0.3695
SG: Approach 0.5032
SG: Short 0.0881
SG: Putting 0.1147
Driving Errors 0.3798
1-Putts 0.0368
3-Putts 0.0010

SG: Strokes Gained
GIR+1: Being on the green in one more than regulation
Pars +: Pars or Better
Doubles -: Doubles or Worse
Driving Error: Any drive that leaves no chance at a green in regulation

A lot of these results confirm what has been known for a long time, but some others were interesting. I was curious what the correlation with bogeys would be - I suspect for high handicaps more bogeys may be correlated with lower scores. Moreover, for lower handicaps this correlation is likely stronger. Three-putts have almost no correlation with score though this is easily explained by the fact that more GIRs = more 3-putts. Penalties are highly correlated with score though it may not for golfers who don’t rack up penalty strokes like I do. Finally, it was interesting that GIR+1 had a stronger correlation to score than GIR (though both are highly correlated). I started tracking this stat when Mark Broadie’s book suggested that amateurs track it and its easy to see why - high GIR+1 means few doubles or worse which had the strongest correlation to score.

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#2

Whew. This is a lot of numbers.

So, here’s my question. Aside from how things correlate with each other, what does this tell you you need to work on? You need to hit more fairways? OK, what specifically do you need to do to achieve that? Are your misses left? Are they right? Are they way left or way right? What’s causing all the penalty strokes? Are you hitting it fat? Thin? Off the toe? Slice? Hook? Low? High?

I just think this is a lot of garbled data that tells you next to nothing that will improve your game.

I’m a stat head and a data nerd. Data and analytics is what I do for a living, but there is such a thing as worthless data and that’s what a lot of, if not most of, this feels like.

Keeping a log of what specifically went well and what went poorly seems far more valuable to someone playing at a 13/14 hdcp. Knowing the actionable causes of what produced this data will help you work on specifics rather than just knowing, “Oh, I need to hit more fairways because my end of season numbers say so.”

Sure this stuff tells an interesting story, but it doesn’t tell much of a helpful one in terms of getting better. Careful you don’t lose yourself to the stats. Knowing your game and what you need and want to improve will do so much more for you than compiling numbers.

My two cents.

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#3

I strongly disagree. The data is very useful in figuring out what matters most for lowering scores. For example, I shouldn’t really get down on how often I’m three-putting because there are far more important determinants to scoring. It tells me that making birdies isn’t nearly as important as eliminating doubles and worse.

Also I don’t know why you fixated on hitting more fairways as it pretty much shows that fairways hardly matter. Based on the data I provided, I could have hit 80% of my fairways this year (I actually hit a piss poor amount of fairways but still). Second, my handicap is an 8 right now, and has been below 10 for most of the year. Not sure why you think an 85.6 scoring average is a 13-14 handicap. Might sound harsh, but some of the conclusions you came to really make me question whether you really understand what these statistics mean.

#4

I agree @greenOak. If you average 85 and had a 13 handicap that would mean you play to your handicap every round. There is no golfer on this planet that is that consistent. You may say average but handicaps are not your average score. They are set lower than that. The stats I keep are score, putts, and how many pars, birdies, chip/pitch/bunker ins. I know the weak parts of my game. I don’t need stats to know I need to be more consistent with getting the driver in the air and to turn my hook into a draw. Stop hit shots fat and reduce 3 putts. The reason I keep stats is so I can compare month to month.

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#5

I just picked a stat to use as an example. It could have been GIR or 3 Putts. Doesn’t matter. Those numbers are like reading the ending of a book and not knowing anything about how you got there.

#6

I disagree… I think it’s an interesting data set but maybe that’s just because it shows some conclusions I already know I agree with…

My biggest takeaway, and the thing I’m still wrapping my head around and need to improve on… is the correlation of double bogeys and score. Especially at this level of golf.

To me, it makes sense that it’s the highest correlation and show me something I’m still processing. I think we focus too much on hard skills and not enough on soft skills like “recovery”. Getting yourself back into position to have a putt for par and a two putt for bogey is something I do very poorly.

I think the data does a decent job of showing it’s not one mistake that kills a score, it’s compounding mistakes.

I’m confident if I approached a round with the attitude of I’m going to eliminate doubles today vs I’m going to make a ton of birdies, I think I’d score better…

Hoping to put that into play soon.

#7

The putting having such an extreme low correlation to scoring for you strikes me as odd given that around 40% of putts are going to be putts. Are you already gaining stokes putting compared to your handicap level? Without having all the numbers, the only way I can see that correlation working is if you’re already a very consistent putter. if you’re always taking around the same number of putts the the correlation to the variance in scores is going to be low.

#8

Brain hurts looking at that output.

GIR and NGIR (nearly green in regulation…sounds like this is almost like GIR+1) are the most important stats. They basically encompass your tee to green game, which is the most important component of scoring.

Lowest Score Wins discusses this and provides more color but the takeaway is clear. If you want to score, you have to hit greens (or be just off the green).

The best way to improve your handicap is to improve driving and approach shot performance. This is also some of the HARDEST gains to make and any “short term” improvement is probably 90 days of hard work. These gains pay dividends though and compound.

Probably telling you things you already know :slight_smile:

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#9

This is the thing. The stats can tell you that the biggest difference between you and DJ is tee to green, but that doesn’t mean your long game is the thing to work on. If you’re a 10 index, you’re probably 25 shots a round worse than him. That could be 8 shots off the tee, 10 shots approach, 3 short game and 4 putting. Depending on how much time you have and what your skills are, it may be much easier to make up shots with short game and putting.

It’ll be different person to person too though. If you’re 50 and hit it 210 off the tee, but fairly straight it’s gonna be really hard to make up any of those 8 shots. Probably worth focusing on the short game and putting. If you’re 15 and hit it 300 but all over the place, it’ll be easier (not easy). You would likely be best off working on your long game for the most part.

#10

I would disagree. The large gap suggests that there is significant “separation value”.

Almost everyone should be spending 60-70% of their time on ball striking

Sure you may be able to sharpen up your short game and save a few strokes, but your ceiling remains low.

This is from the guy that just posted a putting practice challenge :slight_smile:

Do as i say not as i do!!

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#11

My mother has a friend who is about a 12 handicap (in the UK). She hits it in basically every fairway but only about 160 yards because she’s not strong enough to hit it further than that. There is no point in her spending 60% of her time learning to hit it straighter. Literally impossible.

If you have a tournament upcoming and you have a half hour to practice before it, it’s quite possible (depending on the current state of your game) that spending that time putting may make more of an impact on your score. That doesn’t mean long game isn’t the biggest differentiator. It just means it’s harder to improve that and if your time is limited then the lowest hanging fruit may well be your putting or chipping and not your long game.

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#12

I don’t disagree with your statement, assuming you have a time constraint and are looking to pick up easy strokes before an event.

BUT

I guarantee that even that lady would benefit from a year with a personal trainer / coach, safely developing a little extra speed. The most improvement available to her is still in the long game.

#13

How about a really simplistic view…

Two stats. 1. How many shots do you take to get into a position where your next shot is going to be aimed at the green. 2. How many shots did it take you to get the ball into the hole from position 1.

Try it for a round or two, and the majority of golfers will realise that the the way to improve is to get better at Stat 2 not spend hours on the range trying to hit the back fence.

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#14

Another simplistic view.

You can have a scratch golfer hit your first two shots or every shot after you’ve hit two shots.

Which results in a lower score?

#15

I’ll let the pro take over after two shots.

#16

I’m not a big stats guy but that’s not because I don’t think they c be useful. I just don’t like to become too analytical with respect to a hobby. That being said, I am looking forward to my V3 adding strokes gained to my stats in 2021.

#17

You would be giving up strokes my friend

#18

I know. But all the fun is in getting to the green. :grinning:

#19

Full send!! Crank driver. Flush irons.

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#20

Fwiw I agree with this - as one example… I can look at that data and say, “ok too many doubles” but … there’s no apparent WHAT of what caused the doubles…

Were most of the doubles from…

  • tee shots OB?
  • 3 putts?
  • wayward approaches? (…and were most of those from the right rough? …left rough? …with an 8i? …a hybrid? …etc etc)
  • 2 chips (where first intended chip is mis-hit and short or long or __, so you have to chip again)
  • or ___?

More detailed shot stats could help in picking out those details and leading you to a “What” – which would then directly inform a particular area of your game to focus some practice time on.

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