Sunk Cost Fallacy

Strategy
#1

This is one of those things I keep learning…

Notice in that link, it never mentions how many shots it takes you to get to a certain distance. It doesn’t matter how few or how many shots got you to 150 yards from the pin, at that point a pro has a 76% chance of hitting the green, a 13% chance of landing it inside 8 feet and a 50% chance of making that putt…

The ball doesn’t care how many times it’s been hit. You can’t force a bogey anymore than you can force a birdie. Take your medicine, play smart and don’t chase the hero shot. Saving one stroke on a hole isn’t going to salvage your round, but blowing up on a hole can quickly destroy it.

I’ve learned this lesson more than once… I’ll probably learn it again soon. Playing smart is taking the optimal strategy from where you are every time… @jon talks about this in his book… There is a reason Tiger is Tiger and Phil is Phil…

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#2

It is a really great point that can’t be said enough, letting go of the last shot (good or bad) and treating the next as a discrete event unaffected by what happened before and what could happen next is essential to making the right decision. Some people are good at just letting the last shot go, but there are definitely the analytical among us who have a harder time with it. Fighting against these tendencies can become counter-productive, so another option could be to lean into them and add a mental process to your post shot routine. Stealing a page from Scrum methodologies, one option could be thinking through a post-shot retrospective. To do it, just ask yourself three questions after the shot:

  1. What went well in the shot?
  2. What could be improved?
  3. What will you commit to doing to improve the next shot?

Getting to that third question (and not stuck on the second) is essential, as it takes your focus off the past and on to the shot in front of you. Hopefully, following a process to get there makes it easier to acknowledge the “sunk cost” of the last shot and move on.

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#3

My very first pro didn’t teach me anything about woods, long irons or putting. His whole emphasis was getting your game dialed from 150 in. While I wish I learned a bit more about the driver, those initial lessons stuck with me.

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#4

This lesson really works on the greens. You should never “expect” to make a putt over 10 ft. That frees your mind up to make your best effort and then accept the results.

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#5

I love seeing the stats from the tour pros. It really does help to bring thing into perspective. TV is really good at making our expectations unrealistic. @Craigers and @Wasa you both make great points. I like to think outside of 12ft. It we can use 10 :wink:

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#6

It is easy to get sucked into some unrealistic expectations. I constantly compare my game to the one I had over 10 years ago when I was out of work Spring thru Fall and played a lot of golf. I keep feeling like I should still be able to play that way, but I don’t know why since I’m not playing or practicing anywhere near as much as I was then.

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#7

Really it’s 8 feet. 8 feet is 50/50 on tour. so anything outside that you shouldn’t expect to make. That was really eye opening. Feel like I don’t press on the greens as much thinking “have to make this one” anymore

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#8

I agree in principle. But also note the pros are playing a different course every week. How many 8 footers would they make if they played the same course 100+ times every summer like I do? Not to say I should putt as good as the pros, but I don’t think their stats are necessarily relevant to a typical amateur situation.

#9

I disagree. An 8 footer is an 8 footer. Doesn’t matter what course it is on how often you play it. It’s not just about reading the putt, you have to hit it too!

#10

This is an interesting thought… would be curious if any of the apps track putting length well and from there if you can see a varied make percentage based on frequency of playing a course…

I’d agree it has to help to play the same course, I’m just not sure how much.

@LouStagner any thoughts?

#11

I can tell you this: I practice putting a LOT. I practice at my home course putting green and set up different games. I can tell you once I get outside of about 5 feet being at my home course on the practice putting green makes no difference for me. The pressure starts to get real even if I have hit that putt 20 times that day.

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#12

On the other hand, they play practice rounds, they’ll practice any putt they think they’re likely to see during the week, and the greens they play are just about perfect. They very rarely get a little funky bounce as the ball rolls towards the hole.
But their stats are relevant to us, I think, Putting doesn’t take flexibility, it doesn’t take strength, it doesn’t take coordination. You can learn to hit your line, and you can learn to control your speed. You putting performance is probably closer to a tour pro level than any other facet of your game. Yes, they ARE better, they practice tons more, but we can each get semi-close to their level putting.

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#13

I would agree with this statement 100% and mine is still WAY off. But closer than any other part of my game. Although my sand game is pretty solid.

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#14

How about this: I’m confident an amateur golfer who moved from playing 10 different course to one consistent course would see some measure of improvements in their putting.

#15

Don’t disagree with the improvement, but I wouldn’t expect on average that they would get to a point where they’re better than 50/50 from 8 feet over a representative sample. They may be closer to 50/50 than they were when playign 10 courses, but not going to be better than a Tour player.

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#16

Yeah, I don’t know how much upside there is.

Though I’d be interested to see how much help playing the same course gives overall… for me, it’s less putting and more knowing what I’m doing on every hole and where I can miss.