This is covered by the concept of risk/reward around proximity to hazards… understand your post but just using some of the language from DECADE and Lowest Score Wins
We want to be as close to the pin as possible without risking a penalty strokes. We have to think about the entire shot zone and then select our target based on that shot zone
We can’t let anecdotal 3 putts influence this. The issue with the 4 putt scenario you described is the combination of a really tough greens AND the lack of proximity
I’ll take the hardest 10 ft putt on your course vs a flat 40 ft lag any day of the week… the stats tell us I am much more likely to get the 10 ft putt down in 2