One way miss: myth?

Strategy
#1

@ScottFawcettDECADE had a tweet up today saying that a one way miss wasn’t a thing… interestingly, I had just finished arguing the benefits of it with the pros at my club.

He was responding to the No Laying Up guys saying DJ had “eliminated the left side of the golf course”, so unless he has time to chime in here, I’m going to assume what he means is even the best players are going to occasionally miss to the “wrong” side of their target line… basically that our miss patterns will always fall on both sides of our target line, and that even the best of us can pull one / yank one / rope hook one on occasion.

He obviously has the data on this, and I’m not going to get into an argument I can’t win (unless my wife is involved)… but I still think the fundamental has value, even if it’s only 80% true.

Last season, I was pretty reliably fading the golf ball… I actually started the season with a mediocre swing that was consistent enough to get away with… as I took lessons and improved path and impact position, it became a reliable fade…

With a reliable fade, my target became the middle of the fairway, but my AIM moved further left. I’d aim down the left rough, and my fade would bring me back to center… a big miss would stay in play right and a mediocre swing would put me left of target, and most likely into the left rough.

By moving my aim left, I moved my dispersion out of trouble (aiming down the middle would have brought OB right into play)… so I could still MISS left, i wasn’t majorly punished… Basically, the only penalty strokes were going to be big mistakes in either direction (and the majority went right).

To me, that’s “eliminating” a left miss, even if the data has balls left of my target (and occasionally left of my aim).

I don’t know if that’s a semantics based argument or if I’m missing the point, but I figured I’d take it here and see what others thought.

Arm lock vs Side saddle putting
#2

Two data points: when DJ misses badly, he misses left:

And he misses left more than he misses right (and he’s definitely not eliminating either side of the course):

So it looks like a great idea as a talking point that isn’t borne out by the data.

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#3

I’d consider myself a good driver of the ball and exclusively play a draw. Whenever I’ve measured my miss tendencies it’s almost equal on both sides of the fairway. I used to buy into the “eliminate one side of the course” but I don’t really even consider it anymore.

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#4

Interesting… I guess I’m behind on the times! Probably a good thing to build a data set on in the simulator this winter!

So, knowing that, where do you aim on the teebox? down the right side, with a target of drawing it to the middle? or down the middle, knowing a draw will end up on the left side of the fairway?

#5

On most holes right down the middle. I’m not playing for the draw. Sometimes I’ll hit it straight, sometimes I’ll block it, sometimes I’ll pull/hook it :man_shrugging:

The only time I’ll adjust is if there is big trouble I’m looking to play away from.

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#6

Interesting… I’ll have to get on the simulator and figure out my dispersion and best point of aim…

I feel like aiming left for my normal shot to land in the middle is the best course of action… it doesn’t eliminate the left miss, but should put my dispersion in the middle of the fairway.

#7

That is entirely possible it’s something you need to play around with. Also tracking your shots during your rounds will help you understand where your tendencies are.

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#8

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Small sample size when I was driving the ball well, but this was focused on left of center as a target.

Also, the long balls were in Idaho with a good wind! (Still proud of them!)

#9

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I play a draw. These are my driving stats for 2020 (yes, I need to hit more fairways).

Interestingly, for the most part, the right miss punishes me more than the left miss. Probably because I’m already aiming down the right side of the fairway and if I hit the big right one, it goes way right.

#10

I believe Scott’s whole thing on this topic is “get rid of the double cross” not “eliminate one half of the course”.

In DJs case this mean he can hit a hot pull (face square to path) but not a hook.

For @jon he can hit a big push (again square to path) but not a right wipe.

Double crossing your pattern is what leads to big misses, ob, penalty etc.

I unfortunately have an OTP move that shifts my path left and causes me to hit a little pull fade or hot left duck hook. I play my best golf when consistently swinging to the right and playing a big push right as the miss

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#11

I did not say a one way miss isn’t a thing. I said you don’t eliminate one side of the course. Massive difference. Great players eliminate the double cross and it is the most important thing in ball striking.

The best drivers (**on average and a few other disclaimers since this is a hard topic to talk about genetically) miss roughly the same amount left as they do right regardless of shape or anything. This is because over the course of a season the penalty areas will average out approximately evenly on both sides of the fairway.

The No Laying Up point of “ DJ eliminates the left side of the course” is nothing more than somebody attempting to sound golf smart. You’ll hear many
I’ve got Covid right now so I doubt I’ll respond again, but I did not say anything about a one way miss.

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#12

Get better soon, amigo.

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#13

Right. I think this is semantics. For DJ playing a fade, it really means he can point his body left of where he’s aiming and be confident he won’t miss it further left. The catastrophe is aiming left playing for a fade and then hitting a hook. But if you’re missing one side more than the other you’re aiming in the wrong place. It’s really as simple as that.

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#14

I have a inside out path and with irons I always hook. This takes the right side of the course out of play unless I shank it. In an effort to drive better by manipulating the face to avoid a hook I miss both ways with the driver.

#15

Thanks Scott! Hope you are recovering, and appreciate the clarification.

#16

wow, it took a case of Covid for you to show up on the forum!

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#17

He should show up here more often. Way less stressful than the Twitter machine.

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#18

I think this is the key takeaway… Eliminate a big miss in one direction. This is something I’ve been working on and definitely helped my scoring last season.

What I do want to test on a simulator is my dispersion vs my aim… basically, if I’m planning on fading the ball, I aim down the left side of the fairway… does my dispersion include misses left of my target, and how far left? I think there are going to be obvious outliers, but I’m curious what my 80% shot pattern looks like.

Hopefully my back is fully healed by the time the simulators are in, and I’ll post my data.

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#19

I’m late to the party, but I’ll chime in anyway. I’d agree that every single player will miss sometimes to the left of his intended target, and sometimes to the right. But for most of us, eliminating a two-way curvature is a good thing. If I know I’m (almost) certain to hit a draw, I can safely aim at the right-center or right edge of a fairway. I’m certainly going to start a few to the right of my intended start line, I’m certainly going to hit a few unintentional straight shots, so I can’t completely eliminate a right miss. What I’ve done is to (nearly) eliminate shot that starts right and curves further right. And the opposite will happen, I’ll start some left of my intended start line, I’ll over-cook the draw, so I’ll hit some shots left too.
The “one way miss” and “eliminate the left side” stuff is more of the older dogma that’s being increasingly phased out by more modern statistically based evaluations

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#20

Edit: I missed Scott’s reply.