Safety First!
Option 1.
On this there can be no debate
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Option 1 is definitely not 100% in the fairway. It might be fairly likely to be in it. For options 2 and 3, the potential bad result is you could hit a tree and bounce into a far worse spot. I don’t believe you’d be as close as you think under those circumstances. I think for the most part, Scott would say don’t do anything that doesn’t have a pretty high chance of success. Basically anything where if you hit it and it doesn’t work out you’d think “wow that was dumb” as opposed to “damn that was a bad shot”.
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Haha, what a great differentiator! Makes sense to me.
Well all the options are missing some probability of being in the rough after a successful punch out. However, unless the probability is much greater for one option than another I don’t think it should the change the relative values that much.
As for being in a worse spot than before, what are the odds you end up in a penalty situation after this shot? Seems very unlikely. In addition, the trees don’t seem particularly thick. Finally, the expected strokes to hole out from a recovery situation already accounts for the chance that it could end up in a good or bad recovery situation.
To put things in perspective: According to Mark Broadie’s SG app, for a scratch golfer, 300 in the fairway is as good as 178 in recovery, so just whacking it 120 yards forward in the trees is about as good as option #1.
Interestingly, for a pro, the same app will tell you that 300 in the fairway = 45 in recovery - an enormous difference.
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I would be more inclined to play #3 if the tree position was flipped
Right now it blocks out a draw (near tree is to the right of the far tree… in other words a shot that is softly cutting gives you the most margin for error… I don’t ever mess with a cut out of the trees
If the trees were flipped, I feel like I am getting that shot past the first tree 9.5 times out of 10 which reduces the worst case scenario penalty and prob makes it close to optimal
You will never be giving up many strokes by playing #1 though… most people gamble way too much out of the trees
Yeah I think that is something people don’t grasp
Lot of situations in golf are like poker where
- you don’t have perfect information
- ev is really close
For me the value of DECADE is pointing out situation where you repeatedly are leaking .1 to .5 strokes (tee balls, double chips, recovery shots)
Many situations though will be close to a coin-flip and confidence, situation, lie can all have a big impact on what is “right”
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I’d let to get some input on my nemesis hole where my league plays. It’s only about 335 yards but I’m averaging bogie on this hole.
From the tee at the bottom to the left edge of the red line (about the furthest you can hit it from the tee with a straight ball without going into the left trees) is about 167. From there, it’s 169 in to the green. Tree line to tree line is only about 40 yards at this point.
A few complicating factors:
- My natural shot is a draw, and I’m not very good at fading it.
- The fairway slopes hard to the right, so the effective width is much narrower. You pretty much need to land just in the left rough and hope for a good bounce to end up in the fairway.
- As you can see, the green is narrow and if you miss to the right by even a yard or two, there’s a high probability of bouncing down the hill and out of play.
- The area where the red line is usually very soggy from water run off, so you won’t get any roll if you land in this spot.
- The area in the trees to the right is mostly hardpan and roots, so recovery from there is tough.
I started the year trying to play a fade with a driver or 5-wood. If I hit it good, I only have 40-50 yards in, but after hitting a couple double-crosses into the woods, I gave up on that strategy.
So lately, I’ve been dropping to to hybrid or 6 iron, although if I pull it, I can still get in the left trees. I’ve considered dropping as low as 7 iron and settling for a longer shot in, but the problem is it’s a very small green with really no good place to bail out (other than short), so the shorter club in, the better.
How would you play this?
Learn to hit a reliable fade and send a driver? Play for a 5 and hope to make a putt for 4 occasionally? Rent a bulldozer and destroy this abomination?
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Any time you mess around with the trees, bad things can happen. I hit a drive a little right a couple of weeks ago. There were three trees in the area. They were the tall ones that have no low limbs, so basically unless you’re unlucky, you’ll have a normal shot and if you are unlucky, then you may have to hook one or slice one to get around it. Where did I end up? Lying against the tree trunk with roots around it and had to take an unplayable. There are many worse places you could wind up than where you started.
One of the biggest mistakes people make is hitting an iron because they’ll hit that in the fairway while their driver will end up in the rough, but sometimes their driver will be in the fairway and sometimes their iron will be in the rough. Giving up that 50-60 yards every time for the marginal fairway vs rough situation doesn’t make sense. Your numbers should probably be something like:
Option 1 - 300 in the fairway 80% of the time, 300 in the rough 20% of the time
Option 2 - 225 in the fairway 40% of the time, 240 in the rough 10% of the time, 250 in recovery 25% of the time and 300 in recovery 25% of the time
Option 3 - 125 in the fairway 10% of the time, 150 in the rough 5% of the time, 200 in recovery 45% of the time, 250 in recovery 20% of the time and 300 in recovery 20% of the time
Obviously in reality it’s a spectrum and not so clear cut, but you’re picking the most optimistic in each instance. Side note - I do think it’s worth taking a little more risk if the difference in distance you’re looking at is 300 vs 200 than if it’s 200 vs 100. Each additional ten yards between 300 and 200 is worth more than it is between 200 and 100, because it’s the difference between being able to reach the green and not.
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You answered your own question with the percentages. 15% is a no go, 50-50 is not an option that I want in my golf game. The premise is that avoiding bogeys, doubles or others will have a much higher impact on your score than chasing par or birdies. Take your medicine and move on.
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Hit whatever club is going to get a wedge in your hand consistently and go with that… I’d probably be hitting a 4 utility or a 3 hybird on that shot, and leaving myself 100-130 in…
While as close as possibly is more advantageous, once you are at wedge distance, you aren’t gaining that much by adding more distance… You will still end up in the trees on occasion, but commit to the swing and a target and it will happen LESS often!
A 4-hybrid or 7-wood would probably get me to wedge range. But it would need to have a fade to avoid the left trees. I really need to work on that shot.
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Should be able to get a fade with different ball position.
Adjustable hosel club set open, Tour Stiff shaft and Jumbo grip! Actually that might cause a push cut, but will definitely help keep it right.
I feel your pain as I can fade the driver all day, but I can’t do it consistently with the shorter clubs.
How penal are the left trees? Is it just recovery, a lateral, or a likely lost ball?
My gut tells me if you can get it in play inside wedge distance about 85% of the time (or more) of the time, thats likely the right play. If not, I’d hit driver, aiming sufficiently far right, accepting that you’ll often end up in the trees.
It’s not marked as OB or lateral, but it might as well be. You most likely cannot find a ball or have a play from in there.
Hitting a fade with something that goes 200+ is the answer apparently. I need to work on that shot. It’s not something I have consistently right now.
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I think these are overly pessimistic - at least for option #2. I’d guess something like 40% fairway 225, 10% rough 225, 25% rough 250 (miss the gap or hit a tree but still be left with a line into the green because the trees are quite thin), 15% recovery 250, 10% recovery 300.
Those trees look pretty low to me. I think he’s optimistic about option 2. I took another look at the picture and I think I prefer option 4, which is to the left of option 3, with a cut and up over the trees. Unless there are more trees you can’t see in the picture that’s likely what I’d do. Option 3 that tree to the right of it that’s close is looming large to my eye.
Yeah I was thinking about way left as well
Really interested in decade esp after last two podcasts.
@jon
Do you think it makes sense to start in winter months for those in northern climates? Wont be able to enter data but theoretically have time to focus on theoretical portions of system
Confess to being a bit befuddled on how strategy is good for mid to high handicappers. It almost seems like you and scott are saying plus five isnt good enough to steer around centerline bunkers.
For fifteen handicaps i extrapolate that to hitting most greens are more chance than skill. Aim for middle and hope. Thats quite disappointing if correct. At what point, i wonder, do things become say 75 percent skill and 25 percent variance. From 100 yards out? Fifty?
One thing that triggers me is how often you say what is the worst that can happen? High handicaps have such a wider range of things that happen from 15 yards and in. 3 or 4 putts from eight feet. Chipping twice or three times. Skulling ball ob.
Im curious if decade will show that being in rough pin high and chipping is truly better than being on fairway but short and chipping uphill for mid high handicappers? And if so how much is skill driven versus variance based on overall skill level.
Im not sure scott can appreciate how hard game is for some if he plays five times a yesr and maintains plus five handicap. Fundamentally his swing works especially when as noted he is super long. For others topped drives and duck hooks happen and sometimes driving irons may make sense, esp on long par 4 or par 5 where cant get there in 2 anyways and shorter clubs may strategically take hazards out of play.
Willing to invest $75 if you say its worth it to find out the answers though. 
. Just trying to figure out when it would be most bang for buck. Next spring or now.
Thanks.
Podcast was FASCINATING!
Does scott have a forum? Maybe its better to ask him there.
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The thing about strategy and course management is that everyone can benefit from it. Yes you may still hit it OB or chunk it, but if all the shots you strike good, which there are many of, are played with a good strategy you will lower your handicap. I believe that if you have an off season it is the perfect time to invest. You can keep the golf bug going and learn a lot. The best part of DECADE is that you can shoot a lower score without changing anything about your swing.
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