Some quick, back of the napkin math… if it’s a .2 stroke difference, you’d need to hit it OB more than 1 out of 10 times for it to be the smart play…
As Zipr points out, you still have to put the “safe” shot into play… and as evidenced by my round today, that doesn’t always happen!
I do think an important caveat on this is to know your miss and your tendencies and make sure you are aiming down the “true middle” of your dispersion.
OB runs the entire length on the left side and starts about 240 out on the right side…
I’ve hit driver here the last three times I’ve played with success but it’s a nerve wracking tee shot for sure. There’s usually some sort of cross wind as well.
Is the thought here that one OB shot is worth 2 strokes so 1 OB per ten shots is a wash for the .2 strokes gained at 150 vs. 180?
That’s a tough one. If it’s a lake on one side instead of OB, it’s driver no question. Also, if your driver carry is only 240 then it’s probably driver as well if you’re a righty since to the right is a flare and you’ll probably stay short of the OB.
I know the math would say driver all day for a tour pro but we’re not tour pro’s on here (I don’t think). I’m probably in the lay back group here personally unless I’m really confident in the driver. Hit it OB and you have to hit the same shot again with chance of OB. Tough hole.
Ugh… that is a tough hole! I think laying up might actually make some sense since OB is so penal…
We’re assuming 3W is going to be that much more accurate? Or that misses are going to end up in the front right FW bunker versus OB.
A point arguing for 1W: that green doesn’t look all that deep or unprotected from the front. Is a lower, hotter approach shot going to hold that green, versus a shot from a 2-3 club shorter club?
65 yds is about 14 degrees of dispersion at 275 yds. Not the widest target, but it’s not a slot either. What’s your dispersion with 1W vs 3W, OP, if you know?
Last time I measured my Driver dispersion on a launch monitor was in April and that was about 75 yards after 20 or so drives. I THINK I’ve become more accurate as the season has progressed but hard to say for sure.
I honestly wouldn’t even hit 3W here either. Probably would hit 3 iron, and then a 5 or 4 iron into the green if I laid it back. Then I’d be hoping to get up and down for 4 or at worse, get a bogey and move on.
BUT, it feels like giving up to an extent…
GOLF!?
That’s just a tough hole overall… you’d want something that get you just short of the right bunker without putting you in it… not sure what that would be distance wise… I think it might make sense to play it short and just have a long iron in… 150 left isn’t that huge of a scoring advantage… you are probably going to average 4.5 from 150 as a single digit cap… knocking that up to 4.7 isn’t a huge swing and takes double or worse off the table.
This is where my head is as well - in the bunker is ok (as compared to OB) if laying short of it leaves way too much in, but with OB on both sides driver is bringing in the possibility of a huge number.
Reminds me of our #14 hole. OB the whole left side and then OB on the right starts maybe only 180 out. The hole sort of bends right to left a little and narrows as it goes playing 401/425 White/Blue.
Laying back can mean laying up as OB is still pretty close to the left and right side of the green. I don’t think you can miss more than 5-10 yards left or right. I have played this hole for bogey quite a bit as it’s easy to make a triple. That said a big hitter splitting the fairway can make this hole look easy.
Hit driver and hope!!?? That is a tough hole. I still believe that the math would say driver especially if you are in the 250 range, just due to the length of the 2nd shot. I would guess that you could make 5 on that hole every day and pick up strokes on the field.
If we’re laying up, are we trying to lay up short of both bunkers on the right? Or are we indifferent to missing right into bunker, or rough between them, so long as we don’t go OB?
Using Pythagorean and the screen capture, I get 162 in the middle of the fairway if we are just past the second bunker. So we’re debating between 1W to go 270 or so, and give us 150-160 in, but bring OB into play. Or going down to 3i, going 200-210(?), leaving us 210-230, but taking out OB? Just want to make sure I’m asking the right questions.
If that’s the decision, and 1W dispersion is at or better than 75 yds at that distance, with the population following a ‘normal’ dispersion, and a constant type of ball flight (i.e., if drawing, we put the aim point on the far right of the FW): Then given how protected and shallow the hole looks, I’m still keeping the 1W.
I personally would have a hard time holding that green with the 5W/3H, that I’m guessing OP would need to get home from 210-230, and the total strokes added would be more with that approach than the ~8-10% or so of drives I’d expect to go OB.
I’m guessing OP has gotten bitten by the OB more often than purely looking at dispersion calcs would indicate though, hence the post.
If you are going to lay up, take the trouble out of play. A fairway bunker, especially one from 160+, is going to be a big penalty for almost every golfer.
Agreed on both counts. For me, a 65 yd wide fairway is pretty damned wide. Additionally, my little coterie of retired farts have recently been using forward tees (5,800 vs 6,400). Having an 8-iron approach is a hell of a lot mor fun than a 5-I approach.
I’d personally layup and feel pretty good about it, but I have a large (much wider than 65 yards) dispersion with driver. I’d reckon I would hit it OB at least 20% of the time pulling driver.
It looks like you should almost never hit the layup OB if you aim sufficiently far right so ultimately it depends on how big your dispersion is and how penal the bunker or being behind the houses is. Also should take into consideration the likelihood of hitting it OB on your second shot. It’s probably a low probability, but if you’re especially erratic, laying up could just be transferring the likelihood of hitting it OB on your drive to hitting it OB on your second.
Also, per Mark Broadie’s strokes gained app, a scratch golfer averages 4.48 on a 429 yard hole. With OB on both sides it wouldn’t surprise me if the average on this hole is even higher. Bogey isn’t a bad score here.
Found myself in this position the other day. Par 5 tee shot in the trees. Pin over on the left.
Option 1: Wide open punch out, leaves you ~300+ from the green
Option 2: Narrower but doable (call it 50-50 if you can keep the ball on/near the ground), leaves you with 225-250 to the green and a chance to get a GIR. Even if you hit a bad shot, you might still have a shot at the green.
Option 3: Very narrow, call it a 15% chance to pull this off (either a punch shot or an under-the-first-tree-over-the-second-tree shot), but leaves you with a 125-150 into the green. A bad shot might keep you in jail or you might still have an obstructed shot of some kind.
Which shot are you hitting?
FWIW, this is the 12th hole on the Masters course at Brookhaven CC in Dallas.
@ScottFawcettDECADE in case you have a POV on this 
Not sure on the math here… Seems like it’s clearly 1 or 2… The problem with 1 is it leaves you with little chance of hitting the green in regulation, but it does minimize risk of a big number…
If you mess up 2, you’d have to hit another punch which would put you in a worse position than 1, but if you succeeded you’d be in a better spot… Granted from 220 out, you aren’t likely to hit the green…
My guess would be just get back on the golf course and play for bogey… try to have a par putt, but don’t make double… #1 gives you the best shot at that.
Would’ve thought it was option #1 for sure, but option 2 looks like its probably best, and option 3 doesnt look that bad either.
Option #1 (300 in the fairway 100% of the time)
Expected strokes to holeout (scratch golfer): 4.14
Option #2 (225 in the fairway 50% of the time, 250 in recovery 50% of the time)
Expected strokes to holeout: 0.5x3.66 + 0.5x4.62 = 4.14
Option #3 (125 in the fairway 15% of the time 200 in recovery 85% of the time)
Expected strokes to hole out: 0.15x3.10 + 0.85x4.30 = 4.12.
Given the chance that a bad shot in option 2 could still leave you a shot into the green, Im leaning option 2.
Obviously you’re not going to be in the fairway everytime you pull off the recovery shot, but I dont think ignoring this will change the relative values too much.
Love this analysis. Also kinda crazy how close each of the expected strokes are!!
Depends. If I’m playing in an ‘event’, which I rarely do these days, I’d go for #1. Thinking that a bogey from the trees staunches the bloodletting a bit. Otherwise, probably option #2.
