Betting Strategy

Strategy
#1

@jon feel free to remove this if it’s inappropriate…

I continue to be terrible at golf pools… I realize it’s chance and big pools have big swings… but man, I’m awful… I talked myself into Bryson at the Masters, but this seems like a bad strategy… I think moving forward I’m going to hedge… In states where it is legal, I’m going to:

Place a $10 bet or so on Bryson winning… and then ignore him in the pool I enter… Him winning will more than cover my entry fee and allow me to take better positions on people not named Bryson. Right now, it seems foolish NOT to pick him, but obviously that position can bite you… so moving forward, my goal is to eliminate him punishing me if he wins (by hedging elsewhere).

Anyone have any actual success in legal golf pools?

PG Forums Fantasy Golf League
#2

NH is a legal betting state. I sometimes play DraftKings Sportsbook and Fanduel.

I have two lineups in Fanduel on the masters. Refer to the Masters 2020 thread we were talking in earlier this week for a few of the guys I was looking at this week. Reed over Spieth, Cameron Smith, etc.

The strategy all depends on what you’re betting or what your pool is.

Hedging can be good but it also cuts into your profits. Betting someone to win the tournament outright is very difficult and somewhat unpredictable hence the massive odds even on the favorites. I like to bet top tens and twenties. Make/miss cut.

Fanduel lineups / fantasy style is all about making the cut. Course history, current playing form, their style all come into account. There is so much to it and even after all the analyzing it can be humbling when the tournament plays out. Like Brian Gay in Bermuda two weeks ago? Who would have thought.

I love to talk betting and fantasy but like you said if it isn’t for here I understand!

#3

I’ve never done fantasy golf… seems like a good time… maybe we can start a league?

#4

I haven’t played a fantasy golf season league in a long time. I assume there are still platforms we could start a league on. Daily fantasy sports aka DFS, like fanduel and DraftKings dfs, you have salary caps but it is for real money so I don’t know if only certain states are allowed? I’d have to look. But I’ll try to look into some season long fantasy stuff if people are interested. It gives you some people to root for even during less than stellar fields.

#5

Yahoo was my default for fantasy football… that was awhile ago!

#6

Golf betting is tough. Every thing is pretty much 10-1 or worse because of how competitive the pga is. Very different than picking games ATS.

Generally in a Calcutta my thought is any player secured at a discount to Vegas odds is a win. You basically are using the pool to look for arb opportunities.

Two plus two has some commentary around golf gambling.

Best gambling advice I have is:

  • keep a journal with predictions. For football this would be related to turnovers, rushing predictions and qb performance. Always do a post game analysis to see if anything held true. The best thing about doing this is that it has taught me I have 0 edge in sports gambling and should treat it accordingly

  • set aside gambling money annually. It’s $1k for me. When it’s gone, I am done for the year. Some years I make money, but that doesn’t change anything. Some years I win a car. Still 1k with $25 to 50 unit size the next year though

1 Like
#7

I’ve played in informal pools; not big bets, but I’ve still lost a fair amount on Rickie …but I still keep betting on him!

1 Like
#8

I play in a work pool on the PGA Fantasy site. I would be happy to set one up for PG forum folks if you want to give it a try.
That said, fantasy golf is an absolute crap shoot, much more so than any other fantasy sport that I ever played. Because of the way most setups will reward high finishers, you can’t really just choose guys who always make the cut and expect to win. Also, if you just choose the guys who should win every week, then you wind up in the middle of the pack with all the other players choosing those big names. My strategy is to go for a couple big names, a couple cut-makers, and a couple flyers who have been chosen by a low percentage of people, but I feel like could put up a good score. That strategy got me DJ and Seungjae Im this week, so I’m in a decent position to take it (but have to see what happens tomorrow).

#9

I would be in for some fantasy golf!

It is a tough to pick some weeks, easier on other weeks. Some courses are birdie fests, watch the weather, some players suck in windy or rainy conditions. Course history can be huge. Strength of the field can create some great value on some great players.

All I heard about was Bryson this week and I didn’t buy it.

#10

Same here, but mainly because the guy is 27 and this is his first year REALLY inside the hype machine (as opposed to being a talented oddity). Average Masters champ is in his 30’s, so I was confident that Bryson wasn’t going to be in the mix this week.

#11

Alright, went ahead and created a league on the PGA Fantasy site. You can sign up here:

If enough people sign up, we can figure out if we want to do a cash pool or anything (nothing crazy, maybe $20 a segment). Otherwise we can definitely just keep it for funsies.

2 Likes
#12

Joining now, do you want to start a fantasy thread to see if others are interested? Probably get more visibility that way

#13

Lost all my pools badly… I really need to figure out an actual strategy for gambling on golf beyond “I like Max Homa”.

I think moving froward it makes sense to hedge a top player like Bryson elsewhere so I can gain an edge by not picking him (I could also just not pick him, but then I’ll be mad when he wins)… Even with his play this time around, I think he’s got a good shot in any tournament… though other players have plenty of natural length… Rory was once the Strokes Gained champ at driving by like 2 points, I think.

#14

image
image828×1386 421 KB

I finished in 755 out of 71,000 won 50 bucks on a $15 entry. I had one other lineup going that missed the money by a couple points! Winner won $200,000. It’s like an educated lottery lol you gotta get it perfect. All in all I was $50 in and won $78. Just hoping one day to hit the big $.

There are sites you can access, most of them for money but some are free that offer some advice and once you see how the experts pick , you can use that plus your own Intuition and knowledge from watching and following the pros to make some good picks. Fantasy labs and rotogrinders are popular ones. Golf digest has expert picks each week and take their advice as you will, sometimes it’s pretty good.

1 Like