We may be veering too much into my Philosophy degree (Sorry, mom!) but I think you can take a step back and look at golf as an interesting study in human nature and a good look at expectations.
Going back to the Chasing Scratch example (and this is all speculation)… Eli hit what he considered a good drive and got a bad result… He ended up trying to hit a hero shot onto the green, instead of punching out and playing for par… if he had hit a BAD shot and it had ended up in the same place, my guess is he would have at least considered taking a smarter route into the green. As you said, if he made a smart, independent decision, he would have likely had the opportunity to make par.
It’s really hard for me to separate each shot. “I hit a good drive, I should have a birdie putt!” “I’ve really got to get after this shot to make par”… One of my biggest goals for the season is to separate out each hole into it’s own bucket (not worry about my total score, just play the hole in front of me as well as possible) and then separate out each shot… try to consistently make the best decision from where I am, based only on the situation I’m currently in…
I don’t play enough match play events to worry about anything but my score… I’m hoping I can build out a good mental game to handle this, but we will see!