Lou Stagner (stat guy for DECADE) recently posted this on his twitter:
I did some quick calculations and found the following (expected strokes to hole out is obtained from Mark Broadie’s GolfMetrics App)
Driver: 0.2 x 2.79 + 0.6 x 2.94 + 0.2 x 3.06 = 2.934
–> Driver better by 0.136 strokes
PGA tour baseline:
Driver: 0.2 x 2.65 + 0.6 x 2.91 + 0.2 x 3.14 = 2.904
–> Hybrid better by 0.094 strokes
Now I’m miffed that apparently from 60 yards in the sand, scratch golfers take fewer strokes to hole out than PGA pros, but for the scratch golfer, driver will still the better play so long as you average less than 3.89 strokes to hole out from 60 in the sand.
I think this just shows that getting closer to the hole is even more important for amateurs (even good amateurs) than it is for pros.