Interesting Aimline Recommendation

Equipment
#1

As part of a school project, I’ve been working on a program that calculates optimal golf strategy given an arbitrary shot pattern(s). While testing with my shot patterns (ie really big), it usually doesn’t suggest anything too surprising - it loves hitting the big stick, swears by the center of the green, and strongly favours in play over in the fairway. However, one tee-shot suggestion on a straight, tree-lined par 4 caught me completely off-guard. The computer wants to aim at the LHS trees and use the adjacent fairway to capture leftward shots.

Before going any further I’ll note that (at least on this hole) this strategy only applies for wide dispersion patterns. Using a typical scratch driver dispersion around 70-75 yards wide, the computer likes the predictable strategy of aiming at the center of the fairway.

To start, below is an adjusted image of the hole. Light green is fairway, dark green is rough, tan is trees, blue is water.

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Aiming down the middle of the fairway, the computer thinks I will hit the fairway 34% of the time, and be in the trees 31% of the time. The shot pattern is shown below (note the red star indicating the center of the shot pattern):

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Aiming at the left hand side trees, the computer thinks I will hit the fairway 32.2% of the time, but be in the trees only 21.3% of the time (as well as one big outlier into the water). Average proximity to the hole is less than 2 yards farther. The key seems to be that this eliminates all but the most rightward shots going into the right hand side trees. Essentially, by aiming at the left hand trees, my shot pattern only has to contest with one set of trees. The shot pattern is shown below:

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Overall, it says this aimline is about 0.05 shots better than aiming at the center of the fairway. Moreover, this gap would be even greater if I counted the adjacent fairway as a fairway hit which knowing this hole, it may as well be.

I think a big takeaway for people who spray the ball like me (and even straighter hitters) is that it can be okay to aim at trouble. Unless the trouble encompasses a large area, you’re probably not going to hit it in the hazard. A classic example is a modest sized bunker in the middle of the fairway. For erratic players like myself we are usually best off taking dead aim at the bunker. We’d be lucky (or unlucky) to put 10% of our shots into said bunker.

I know a lot of you will find this overly technical but I personally find this stuff fascinating.

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#2

Sometimes the other fairway is the play - bryson was going to try it on 18 at sawgrass. a lot of players did it at another course a few years back, i can picture the hole but cant’ remember what it was. they went way left right down the middle.

Growing up I hated the hole below. Tight fairway. OB left. The trees just past the fairway bunker were tall enough that the bunker was dead and pretty much anything down the right side was really hard. Playing it to the fairway on the right was a much easier view to the green. Back then there weren’t range finders so was harder to get a number and, while I missed it in that fairway a lot unintentionally, if I was playing it today I’d probably intentionally hit it there (if the trees between the holes haven’t gotten too big).

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#3

70 yards dispersion would lose me 12-14 balls per round :open_mouth:

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#4

I think this is a good takeaway… I also think it is an interesting look at how poor we are at picking the “lowest risk” choice… If your miss is big right, it makes sense to aim further left on holes where big right is OB… even if a good shot ends up in the rough, it was worth is, as a bad shot won’t go OB.

Figuring out how to consistently have good looks at the green AND avoid penalty strokes is one of those things that has significantly helped my game (while also being something I need to improve on).

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#5

Also, you may want to talk to @ScottFawcettDECADE on this stuff… it’s his bread and butter. I’ve seen him go out of his way to help junior golfers, so I imagine he might be interested in seeing your program… His work on this is great. I’ve linked to it elsewhere, but he was on a podcast and discussed how he got into this sort of golf theory through poker… it’s an interesting origin story.

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#6

You mean like this…

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#7

I was definitely inspired by the stuff you do with DECADE. I was mostly interested in the strategy for amateur golfers like myself who have much bigger dispersion throughout their bag.

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#8

If you average under 80 there really isn’t much of a difference. Yes shot patterns are much larger, but if you make a 75 shooter more conservative you are just hammering his proximity on birdie putts and not really hitting many more GIR. If you average over 80 thinking in much more detail than the mindset I teach in DECADE is just going to bog you down. I love seeing that I’ve inspired people to think deeper about the math and strategy of the game! I’ve really tried to think of any way to improve DECADE while keeping it simple enough to actually implement it in reasonable time during play…I really don’t think there is anything else to improve on assuming you know all of DECADE and not just the Twitter, YouTube, and podcast soundbites.

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#9

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How to blow a club championship! As you can see, Plenty of room down the right onto 16th fairway. So my normal aim would be 50 yds right of the 17th and just go down the right—aim at that bunker down the right you see in the distance and let my draw do what it does. … So, even with a massive pull hook which I struggle with sometimes if I cast it, I would be in the 17th FW. Take left miss way outta play. Proper strategy is to, under any and all conditions, eliminate the penalty miss under any theory. That day I didn’t and I blew it. Just so you know hole only 380 from tips so Dr/7i max in adding extra 25 yds playing it as a dogleg. Take what the course gives you!

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#12

Well I definitely don’t average under 80 haha. And while trying to go through every single detail on the course may be more trouble than its worth I enjoy investigating these things even just if it is purely a intellectual curiosity.

P.S Sorry about the triple post, my browser was acting up

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#13

I frequently adjust my aim to favor ending up on another fairway instead of a penalty area, but intentionally aiming directly into another fairway is an interesting idea.

For those of you who do this, would you do it on a busy public course?

I can think of three concerns, two of which could potentially slow down play and result in feeling rushed/stressed. 1. An inexperienced or inconsiderate golfer might take the ball or play it thinking it’s their own. 2. You might have to wait longer than usual to tee off if people are within striking distance on the alternate fairway. 3. If you do end up on the other fairway, you might have to wait for people on that hole to tee off before you’re clear to hit your second shot.

On a busy course, seems like more hassle than it’s worth?

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#14

Yeah, those are definitely factors into why you wouldn’t do it! My home course in Dallas, I was convinced that the 2nd hole would be better played from the 3rd fairway (basically cutting around the dog leg) but my parents didn’t like the idea of me playing the “wrong hole”… I still think about that one sometimes. I’d have to look up the numbers to see if it’s worth it.

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#15

I guess it would depend on your situation. Club championship on line or you are -1 for your round on 17… my logic says its worth the hassle…just a round with the boys, normal circumstance, no cash on the line, probably not…I would agree with you there!

#16

I guess it goes back to how I was taught manage the game. I did read alot about DECADE, to me all that does is put into a computer algorithm your propensities and allows you to make educated decisions…I agree totally with program, I don’t feel it would help me personally, because I apply management tools to my game currently. If you are in a pressure situation don’t ever let your Heart (HERO Game) get in the way of the smartest decision you can make for yourself if you are trying to beat an opponent in MatchPlay or are trying to score a number in MedalPlay. If I can take the Big Number out I will eliminate it as much as possible. On the course, remember this and you will shave numbers. Golf, on the course, is a game HOW MANY, not a game of HOW, 18 different experiences everytime…NIce to finish with a birdie or par, but if it puts a larger number into play, I’m not interested if bogie wins…that’s your number! Kinda goes like this Driver 9i covers 405, but missed drive goes into pond or into woods. 5w doesn’t reach water or trouble, second 5w or 7w puts me in front or just short. short chip or pitch…in for 3, putting from 15ft or closer for 4 or 2 putt for a 5…all variables except a fan or topper put in play, plus I am very comfy with my 18* or 23* woods. I hope that makes sense. There are endless possibilities to play a hole. I remember after the whole thing was over…Jean van de Velde played 18 with just his putter and made 6. 6 would have won won him the Open at Carnoustie! https://www.golfchannel.com/video/jean-van-de-velde-plays-carnoustie-18-putter

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#17

I play on a busy muni; intentionally hitting into adjacent fairway is a bad look. Driving into a roundabout is less contentious. A somewhat reasonable alternative would be to tighten dispersal pattern :wink:

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#18

I guess there’s nothing in the Rules that prevents you from aiming into a fairway other than the one on your current hole…

But personally, and this is just me and my current thinking, I try to play each hole with its own “proper” fairway. Now sure that doesn’t mean I do it every time - I, like many recreational players, can have that occasional really wild tee shot go waaaay wide!

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#19

I have mixed feelings on using other fairways

In a stroke play competition, I would say it is fair game. There are a few holes at my home course where this could be optimal, BUT the tee shots are blind and I just don’t think it is right to put 1/2 of your dispersion in an area where you could dome somebody

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#20

I have an experiment for you guys and I don’t know your courses or where you play…just for the hell of it, plot your way around a course prior to your round. If it means playing down a fairway that isn’t yours, per se do it. If it means laying back to take trouble outta play, do it. Let me know if you didn’t take some major strokes off your game. Try to play to the greens where you know you will have the best opportunity to putt or chip uphill, or play away from the all hazards…on purpose. Play the game to plot HOW MANY, instead of just HOW…

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