I’ll bring up Scott Fawcett and DECADE here, as he is the man when it comes to topics like this. The bottom line is that, from 160 yards, your shot dispersion is wider than the green. So the goal is to center your shot dispersion over the green, while allowing for some extreme examples - if that huge ridge in the middle means 5-8 yards left of the green is better than on the right side of the green, then adjust your aim left when the flag is left makes sense.
Hitting greens is where it is at though. It is really the only stat that correlates to score - literally. And I understand that hitting 9/9 GIR and going +2 isn’t what you are after, but hitting 6 GIR and going +5 is worse. GIR absolutely lowers your worst score. Sometimes I get out there and make a bunch of 6-8 footers to save par, and it feels like I’m playing well. But then some don’t go in and I’m on the bogey train. Other rounds, I hit 14 greens and have a bunch of 2-putt pars…it feels boring sometimes, but it adds up to better golf.
I also like the “look at the back edge number and hit a club that can’t go long”. We rarely hit a well struck shot that goes long.
Great thread.