Very nice discussion here!
I agree that understanding your personal distance control is a huge skill to obtain. I think we overuse the “ego” excuse but maybe I’m wrong. I have based my distance charts off specific testing I’ve done on-course along with several weeks of continual data collection (I don’t have Arcos). I’m a plus handicap and a decent ball striker, however I have often used flawed logic in club selection. I have always taken my data and found an “average” distance to consider my stock yardage. But my consistent missed green is short (or left due to my hook tendency).
The thing we all tend to forget is the majority of ways to mis-hit a ball for a decent golfer will end up with a shorter result. It seems much more rare to end up with a result too long, especially as you get to the longer irons. But we also tend to remember those few long missed shots more because they hurt more. Skull a 9 over the green and you’ve got a 40 yard lob shot from the back rough that doesn’t see a mower quite as often. Or maybe there are trees, hills, etc guarding the next tee box from your errant ball.
Decade is amazing and well worth an investment. One of the facets Scott mentions several times is to be careful when it comes to generalizing your aim based on quadrants on the green. This works well for small greens but can leave you hating your putter on larger greens.