Yeah, that’s always my initial plan, get as close as possible, while being careful not to take to much risk. And if your 3-wood dispersion is a whole lot worse than your hybrid, you’d be a bit unusual, but you do say its your most erratic club. I’m a little shorter than you, so I might be playing one tee forward, but my club choices would be the same as yours. I’d probably hit 3-wood, thinking that a solidly-struck shot would clear the bunkers on either side, as bunkers are typically a bigger “penalty” than rough. Hybrid would bring those bunkers into play for a shot that might just get to the front edge. Really gnarly rough or terrain that I can’t see might make me change my mind.
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Did you know that Billy Casper layed up on the par 3 3rd hole at Winged Foot all 4 days en route to the US Open victory? 
I’d say keep working on the 3 wood or maybe try a punch driver. If your tee shot is out of position, make your recovery shot on the green where you can 2 putt for 4 instead of trying a hero recovery to save par. Strategy here should be very similar to a short par 4.
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I don’t have the data in front of me but from 230 I believe tour pros average 3.6 strokes to hole out. That is from the fairway and I believe par 3 holes are built a bit more difficult. Playing for an up and down par isn’t a bad strategy. Think about it this way, even if you could hit a 3 iron that far, your dispersion has you missing the green a decent amount. Just make sure you aren’t short siding yourself.
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I know this is going to be an unpopular opinion and I dont want to sound too negative but have you though about moving up a tee? Realistically only a small sample of golfers out there would have the swing speed to reach that green and hold it at a distance of 235. I mean anyone not named Bryson on the PGA tour is hitting 2i-4i to get it there. What if the wind is into you? I just dont see this a tee most of us should even consider playing unless the hole plays at least 10yds downhill.
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Nothing wrong with that opinion at all. I have played the middle tees on this course when the rest of the group is playing from there. On this hole, it typically only makes a 10-15 yard difference, so I’d still tend to be just short with a hybrid or maybe a good bounce just getting on.
I agree with the overall point on tees though, everyone should play the tees which matches their ability level. As someone who scores in the high 70s and keeps most clubs pretty straight, I’m comfortable hitting from the back tees there and know I won’t slow things down or get frustrated by it. Even then, I pretty much never play the back tees if I’m playing a course for the first time.
The longer the club the more I hook. There is a 150m par 3 at my course with 3 bunkers and a slope left over the next tee towards the ob fence. I just hit 8i or 9i to leave myself a chip or a pitch or a bunker shot and 2 putts for bogey or a lucky up and down for par… It is about knowing my game and playing the percentages.
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This is where the layout of the hole is probably more important to me. I agreed with your original move, but now that I look at it, there’s all sorts of tree and bunker trouble short and it looks fairly open long? I think I’d take my chances on dispersion being pin-high or long and avoiding any risk of a mishit with the shorter club.
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Doesn’t show well in the photos, but long on the hole is gnarly rough that is never cut, so it’s pretty dead. I think they keep it that way to prevent people hitting their drivers on the hole from bouncing long and winding up in the street that is maybe 25 yards past the hole. The bunkers are definitely in play with the hybrid, but they don’t bother me.
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Then yeah, I like your strategy. If you’re long enough to not worry about the trees and short enough to avoid the gnarly stuff, then being in the bunker isn’t bad!
You mention the course has a number of short par 4s. Maybe try hitting 3wood off on those holes to see how you are hitting the club that day. If you hit it decent, use it when you get to #15, if not, stay with your hybrid.
Alternatively, if #15 is the only hole you hit the 3wood…why not swap it out for a stronger lofted hybrid or an extra wedge? Might help around the greens?
Late to the party here but that really depends on your level of golf. I, as a HI of 21.2 am happy to bogey every hole. That would put me 3 below handicap. So, off the back tees on my course the 17th is 210 yards all up hill with a tree covering the front of the green (one of those horrid ones that moves about and catches your ball before depositing the ball in the worst possible place), left of the tree is the line, carrying 190 to get over the nasty bunkers and landing in light rough and hopefully bouncing out onto the green. A little left its a lost ball in dense trees with thick grass beneath them. Try and go right of the tree and you will have to draw the ball to make the putting surface, straight right is another bunker, wide right a nasty slope that takes the ball towards OB fence line. So for a 21 HU palyer a daunting hole.
So last night, in club singles match play I was one up after 16th and my plan was…6i right of the tree to leave a simple PW onto the green and 2 putt. My opponent would need to make Par to beat me. As it turns out the PW was 9 feet from the hole, my opponent went into the bunker front left then over the green and I holed the putt for par and the match. But playing for actual bogey is entirely the right play for me at my current level.
Sorry for making you read all that!
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exactly - your “personal par” (to quote the first tee program materials) is bogey.
To steal from @ScottFawcettDECADE - don’t try to make birdies (for you a par would be a birdie)
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My 17th is par 3, 230y to the back of the green. I’m 19.6hcp index and usually play to lay up. I can hit a 3hy 200yds but not more than 50% of the time. Last week in the monthly Medal the 3 ball behind catches up and starts trash talking around the tee box. I nailed my 5i to front of green, baby draw. I could hear jaws dropping 
Walked down. PW chip on to green, 8-9’ putt for par.
^I agree with this
The long term strategy has to be to hit the 3w more consistently
I also like @Bigdadenergy suggesting of making an equipment change if you are playing these courses frequently
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Some long par 3’s definitely will have a bail-out area if there is significant hazard near the hole…
these are basically par 3.5’s so no shame in using the bailouts in these cases IMO
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Uh-huh. Our course has two par-3s that play to 165-185 and one that plays 195-205. On the shorter holes, I go “green-hunting”, such as I can. On the longer hole, a ball anywhere on the front apron provides for a reasonable up-and-down opportunity. Par 3.5’s are fine with me.
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