Glad you found something that worked! Keep grinding.
Maybe spend some time doing half swings with a good impact position? To get the feel of a correct swing? That always helps me.
Looking at old threads…
What are you doing on this hole these days? Do you know your scoring average on the hole?
Matchplay format, I am hitting driver all day ( I would be carrying 238 bunker and maybe getting into 260 bunker sometimes)
Stroke play I am pretty sure hitting hybrid short of the 225 bunker is best for me… though this really comes down to how penal the areas on the left and right are… if most of the time you can punch one out to the 100 yard marker, I am playing aggressively… if you can actually incur penalty strokes or be forced to hack out and have 200+ into the green for 3rd shot, I would be picking up strokes by playing safe based on my dispersion
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I’ve been hitting 3 wood unless straight into the wind. Unfortunately being lefty, I’ve been in the left bunker a few times since left misses are flares (funny though I wedged out to 160 last weekend and holed it for eagle).
If it’s into a strong wind or very wet, I’d probably hit driver but on most days 3 wood gives a chance at getting home or at least up near the green.
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also will mention I’ve noticed other guys going to 3 wood as well mainly because that tree was taken out and they’re realizing lost ball potential in the long grass
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I’m back down off driver on 2 of my par 5s… one will be a driver if I ever break 120mph CHS (possible, but unlikely… I’m much more cautious of speed training with my back) as it will allow me to carry a hill… right now it’s hybrid to the bottom, then hybrid back up…
The second par 5, driver hit right is just dead and I can’t play a draw… if I had the ability to hit a consistent draw, it would be driver all day.
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Interestingly, I’m now drawing my driver, and it’s still the wrong play on this hole…
I’m in an existential crisis on my strategy on my home course… I’ve been hitting a ton more hybrid off the tee, and it’s definitely reducing my BIG numbers… i have a couple holes where it’s leaving me long shots and I’m questioning the whole thing…
14, for instance, is a 240 carry over water, but there is a huge tree on the right side that forces you to either hit over it or aim left and bring OB into play… I’ve hit driver out of play a number of times on this hole… but yesterday, I had 180 uphill into the green… I’m going to stick with hybrid and see if I can more consistently put it to 150-160. I’ve messed up the hole from the middle of the fairway on the other side of the creek plenty, so I have no real issue with a strategy change…
5 on the other hand, I’ve played relatively well and hybrid leaves under 150 into the green… A bombed driver gives me a “better angle” and significantly less club, but brings a bunker into play… I think this is more of a neutral shift for me… it take the concessional BIG driver miss out of play, but lowers my chances of making par or birdie… I’ll probably bang driver occasionally just for the fun of it.
I also put one out of play on one of the par 5s I like to hit driver on… My feeling is I wasn’t fully committed to the LEFT target line, and so I aimed right and missed right… just so happens there is water 300 yards out… I’m chalking that one up to bad aim and going to keep hitting driver here… but it’s on my list… My main thought is it’s a tough green, even from 100-150 out, and I might as well try to knock it on from 200 yards, or get up and down from around the green… I hadn’t taken a penalty stroke here until my last 2 rounds… whoops.
I’ve also switched to hybrid on #1 and it’s just annoying me… I haven’t hit the fairway or the green with the switch… I have NEVER played #1 well and driver is over a bunker and leaves a good possibility of having a very large tree in my way… hybrid is the smart play, but I need to be more committed.
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I recall reading somewhere that Jack Nicklaus planned his shot strategy pet hole from the green back - not starting with a line off the tee.
Just food for thought…
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Just curious, how many penalty shots are in play with hitting driver on the holes where you’ve begun hitting hybrid?
I know what DECADE recommends as far as when to hit driver (65 yards between penalty hazards), BUT that also seems to be for very good golfers. I mean Scott is a +5 himself so, we may need to give ourselves some more space.
For example, I’m a 3 handicap and hit it a pretty good way. Average 293 (per ShotScope) but obviously that’s after roll. But I’ve been utilizing The Scoring Method’s strategy of getting the ball in play off the tee as the first priority. 1st gear in TSM is getting the ball inside 100 yards within regulation. Then focusing on getting the ball down in 3 from within 100 yards. This takes the big numbers off the card and builds confidence for putting the ball in play off every tee.
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Whatever the ev / dispersion analysis says, good golfers incur far fewer penalties than higher handicaps
If I start incurring multiple penalty strokes (index bounces between 6 and 8) I know I am not playing optimally. Like you, I am playing less aggressively now with penalty in play because i know my dispersion is just too large.
The proof is in the pudding. If you are taking multiple penalty strokes your dispersion is too damn big. Time to get some block practice going
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Precisely.
Double bogey avoidance is key.
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Our 13th is a nondescript 365yd dogleg right. After several draws ended up being in the heather, I reverted to 3-w to keep ball in play. I averaged nearly a stroke over par due to errant drives. Honestly, that is what drove me to learn(ing) power fade so that I can still game my driver for distance. I was keeping 3-w in play but giving up a couple clubs in approach.
Is this a great game, or what?!
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Yes. I am also trying to describe some of bayes theorem though. You don’t need a huge data sample to start to infer that you have a wide dispersion
Then you weigh frequency of penalty vs -0.3 stroke for laying back
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Love it 
Totally 100% agree (even as a higher handicapper)!
As far as I’m concerned, as an 8-9 HDCP, if I’m hitting driver into penalty situations less than 20% of the time it will probably be the correct play. Closer to 10% if its going to be a stroke + distance penalty. This is probably a higher penalty rate than you think.
Any stroke + distance penalty by definition costs 2 strokes, while a lateral hazard usually costs you about 1 stroke - (its actually a little more than 1 stroke since you often have to move a little farther back to find an acceptable drop area).
It’s somewhat ambiguous as to how much an extra yard is worth as it depends on your skill level, and how close to the green you are. The article in the OP implies that dropping back 30 yards costs amateurs on average 0.3 shots or 0.1 shots per 10 yards. However, on the PGA tour this number ranges from 0.025 to 0.065 depending on the yardage (per Mark Broadie’s Every Shot Counts). In that same book Broadie makes the comment that distance matters more for amateurs than it does pros which lines up with the data.
Simple expected value calculations will tell you that if 10 yards is worth 0.1 shots, in order for dropping back 30 yards to be the correct play, you need to reduce the amount of times you hit it OB by 15%, or the amount of times you hit it into a lateral hazard by 30%, or some appropriate combination of both. There may also be a small increase in fairway% but unless the fairway is significantly wider where you’re laying up it doesn’t make have a significant impact on the calculations.
If you’re a tour pro and 30 yards is the difference between being 70 yards and 100 yards away, you’re only gaining about 0.075 shots from distance. Now you only need to reduce OB% by 3.75% and lateral hazard% by 7.5% in order for laying back 30 yards to be the correct play. However, if 30 yards is the difference between 230 and 200, that distance is worth a lot more and you need to reduce penalty% by more for it to be mathematically correct.
In DECADE, this corresponds to comment the idea that there are diminishing returns to getting closer once you get a wedge in your hand. For those familiar with the driving flow chart it is specifically the box that says “it is unlikely you should drop back to 2i/hybrid unless the hole is short and you will be left with a wedge or less”.
That being said, I question how relevant this is for the majority of amateur golfers. I hit the green about 50% of the time from 100 yards. From 50 yards that number jumps to close to 80%. I’m not sure what my expected strokes to hole out are from either distance, but I’d imagine it would be quite a big difference given how rapidly my GIR% increases in this distance range. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this difference in strokes to hole out is greater than what my difference would be going from 100 to 150 yards.
Take a look at the average GIR% on the PGA tour from various distances:
175-200: 53.77
150-175: 63.20
125-150: 69.48
100-125: 74.81
75-100: 78.11
The increase in GIR% gets smaller and smaller as they get closer and closer to the hole. Granted, they’re definitely sacrificing GIR% for proximity at the shorter distances, but I don’t think its a coincidence that the distances that show the greatest changes in expected strokes to hole out coincide with the distances that show the greatest changes in GIR%. Now compare that to my stats from this year (which are admittedly a small sample size, but I still think they get the general point across):
175-200: 22.2%
150-175: 46.4%
125-150: 40.0%
100-125: 50.0%
75-100: 52.4%
50-75: 70.0%
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Very thorough information here.
I think it comes down to what you said about penalty shots. 1 in 5 seems too frequent to me. Unless at zero penalties, I’d think that would be the first area to address. Why do they have penalty shots? What clubs are the frequent offenders.
Generally speaking, the offender will be the driver. 65 yards with the driver means you are somewhat decently straight. Even Bryson sends it sideways a decent amount of times and I imagine amateurs moreso. I think this is from @LouStagner on Twitter. I agree with the idea that we should all learn to hit it far and a 65 yards wide dispersion is a good benchmark. But if OUR dispersion isn’t 65 yards, we also need to be realistic about that and play more conservatively until we can keep the ball in play with more club.
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I agree that 1 in 5 seems high, but that’s what the math says (actually it says you can potentially have even a higher penalty rate) assuming distance for amateurs is as valuable as the shotscope study says it is. Penalty strokes stick out like a sore thumb after a round, but according to the article in the OP, dropping back to any club less than 3-wood is going to be giving up at least half a stroke. Two hybrid layups basically costs you as many strokes as hitting one ball into a lateral hazard.
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Just for grins here’s where I currently hit hybrid on my home course:
Hole 1 Dogleg left with a huge tree on the left side… It’s a short hole, so a good hybrid will leave me less than 150… a good drive can put me into chipping in territory, but an OK drive left blocks me out… Hybrid consistently gives me a clear look at the green.
Hole 5 2nd easiest hole on the course, and an uphill par 4. if I’m consistently carrying driver 270+ I can carry a bunker and hit a very wide portion of the fairway and have 50 yards or less into the green… If I hit hybrid I’ll have 120ish into the green… I don’t think I’m giving up much scoring opportunity hitting hybrid, but that might just be confirmation bias as I made an easy birdie going hybrid, wedge.
Hole 6. Hybrid into the fairway… it’s dumb par 5. I might need to back off my shot back up the hill as I keep losing it left and was in the fairway bunker last time… I’m going to try a 6 iron and see how it goes (on my second shot). I hate this hole… If I can get the distance to have a chance at hitting driver to the top of the hill, I will transition back to driver. There is no real trouble for 65 yards, it will just leave me an bad lie for my 2nd shot if I don’t make it (which I can safely punch to 100 yards)
Hole 9 I hit 3 wood. Driver hit well brings no advantage and a ton of trouble. This is also a nemesis hole of mine… it’s got a steep valley from 100 yards to the green, but it’s a dog leg right… I can hit 3 wood to 100 yards, so I hit three wood.
Hole 11 Par 5 with a small landing area for Driver. I get into trouble (bunkers or trees) as often as I get a look at hitting it in 2… 3 wood into the fairway, hybrid to 30 yards and a good chip seems to be the smart play.
Hole 14 I’m still contemplating this on… 240 carry over a creek, big tree on the right and OB left… I’ve missed my driver everywhere here… if I’m playing a fade, I aim at the OB and hope it moves. Hybrid leaves me 6-8 iron in… not a great option, if I’m being honest. I need to re-evaluate this shot when I’m hitting driver well…
Hole 16 It’s a hybrid. Leaves me with 120ish into an uphill green and a flat stance. Driver just brings trouble into play with no real upside. My average score has dropped on this hole since moving back to hybrid.
I need to track my stats on the course a little better and make sure these strategies make sense… but I also need to start putting my driver in play when I AM hitting it…
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It is only 1 in 5 for 1 stroke penalties
There should only be a few holes per round where this is the case
If you average 1 in 5 penalties on drives there is no way you are playing optimally
OB and lost ball change the math big time
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Listening to decade stuff… basically realized i suck at driving the golf ball
I hit REALLY errant shots way to often… hard to build strategy around that
I am going to devote more practice time to driving the golf ball and really get obsessed with RADICALLY increasing the % of drives i can hit inside a 45 yard fairway
I also need to decrease the really errant shots… some of this is process, some of this is mechanics, some of this is skill development
Will keep you posted but based on some of your round summaries you may have some similar boojoo going on
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Yeah, my driver is on the fritz right now… it’s getting better and is usually a strength for me… I’m just suffering from a two way miss I can’t seem to get under control… I’ve hit some balls left of left, which was never a problem for me before…
It’s getting better, but if my new miss is left and not right, it’s going to be an adjustment!
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